A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The probability that the ratio of the number of white balls drawn to the
total number of balls drawn does not deviate beyond a given interval
from the ratio of the number of white balls to the total number of balls
contained in the urn, approaches indefinitely to certainty by the
indefinite multiplication of events, however small this interval.
This theorem indicated by common sense was difficult to demonstrate by
analysis. Accordingly the illustrious geometrician Jacques Bernoulli,
who first has occupied himself with it, attaches great importance to the
demonstrations he has given. The calculus of discriminant functions
applied to this matter not only demonstrates with facility this theorem,
but still more it gives the probability that the ratio of the events
observed deviates only in certain limits from the true ratio of their
respective possibilities.
One may draw from the preceding theorem this consequence which ought to
be regarded as a general law, namely, that the ratios of the acts of
nature are very nearly constant when these acts are considered in great
number. Thus in spite of the variety of years the sum of the productions
during a considerable number of years is sensibly the same; so that man
by useful foresight is able to provide against the irregularity of the
seasons by spreading out equally over all the seasons the goods which
nature distributes in an unequal manner. I do not except from the above
law results due to moral causes. The ratio of annual births to the
population, and that of marriages to births, show only small variations;
at Paris the number of annual births is almost the same, and I have
heard it said at the post-office in ordinary seasons the number of
letters thrown aside on account of defective addresses changes little
each year; this has likewise been observed at London.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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