A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities — John Shaqi
A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
One may correct the influence of these unknown inequalities by
submitting them themselves to the chances of hazard. Thus at the play of
heads and tails, if one has a second coin which is thrown each time with
the first and one agrees to name constantly heads the face turned up by
the second coin, the probability of throwing heads twice in succession
with the first coin will approach much nearer ¼ than in the case of a
single coin. In this last case the difference is the square of the small
increment of possibility that the unknown inequality gives to the face
of the first coin which it favors; in the other case this difference is
the quadruple product of this square by the corresponding square
relative to the second coin.
Let there be thrown into an urn a hundred numbers from 1 to 100 in the
order of numeration, and after having shaken the urn in order to mix the
numbers one is drawn; it is clear that if the mixing has been well done
the probabilities of the drawing of the numbers will be the same. But if
we fear that there is among them small differences dependent upon the
order according to which the numbers have been thrown into the urn, we
shall diminish considerably these differences by throwing into a second
urn the numbers according to the order of their drawing from the first
urn, and by shaking then this second urn in order to mix the numbers. A
third urn, a fourth urn, etc., would diminish more and more these
differences already inappreciable in the second urn.
CHAPTER VIII.
_CONCERNING THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY WHICH RESULT FROM THE INDEFINITE
MULTIPLICATION OF EVENTS._
Amid the variable and unknown causes which we comprehend under the name
of _chance_, and which render uncertain and irregular the march of
events, we see appearing, in the measure that they multiply, a striking
regularity which seems to hold to a design and which has been considered
as a proof of Providence. But in reflecting upon this we soon recognize
that this regularity is only the development of the respective
possibilities of simple events which ought to present themselves more
often when they are more probable. Let us imagine, for example, an urn
which contains white balls and black balls; and let us suppose that each
time a ball is drawn it is put back into the urn before proceeding to a
new draw. The ratio of the number of the white balls drawn to the number
of black balls drawn will be most often very irregular in the first
drawings; but the variable causes of this irregularity produce effects
alternately favorable and unfavorable to the regular march of events
which destroy each other mutually in the totality of a great number of
draws, allowing us to perceive more and more the ratio of white balls to
the black balls contained in the urn, or the respective possibilities of
drawing a white ball or black ball at each draw. From this results the
following theorem.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account