A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The preceding results suppose that we may compare the births to the
drawings of balls from an urn which contains an infinite number of white
balls and black balls so mixed that at each draw the chances of drawing
ought to be the same for each ball; but it is possible that the
variations of the same seasons in different years may have some
influence upon the annual ratio of the births of boys to those of girls.
The Bureau of Longitudes of France publishes each year in its annual the
tables of the annual movement of the population of the kingdom. The
tables already published commence in 1817; in that year and in the five
following years there were born 2962361 boys and 2781997 girls, which
gives about 16/15 for the ratio of the births of boys to that of girls.
The ratios of each year vary little from this mean result; the smallest
ratio is that of 1822, where it was only 17/16; the greatest is of the
year 1817, when it was 15/14. These ratios vary appreciably from the
ratio of 22/21 found above. Applying to this deviation the analysis of
probabilities in the hypothesis of the comparison of births to the
drawings of balls from an urn, we find that it would be scarcely
probable. It appears, then, to indicate that this hypothesis, although
closely approximated, is not rigorously exact. In the number of births
which we have just stated there are of natural children 200494 boys and
190698 girls. The ratio of masculine and feminine births was then in
this regard 20/19, smaller than the mean ratio of 16/15. This result is
in the same sense as that of the births of foundlings; and it seems to
prove that in the class of natural children the births of the two sexes
approach more nearly equality than in the class of legitimate children.
The difference of the climates from the north to the south of France
does not appear to influence appreciably the ratio of the births of boys
and girls. The thirty most southern districts have given 16/15 for this
ratio, the same as that of entire France.
The constancy of the superiority of the births of boys over girls at
Paris and at London since they have been observed has appeared to some
scholars to be a proof of Providence, without which they have thought
that the irregular causes which disturb without ceasing the course of
events ought several times to have rendered the annual births of girls
superior to those of boys.
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