A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
But this proof is a new example of the abuse which has been so often
made of final causes which always disappear on a searching examination
of the questions when we have the necessary data to solve them. The
constancy in question is a result of regular causes which give the
superiority to the births of boys and which extend it to the anomalies
due to hazard when the number of annual births is considerable. The
investigation of the probability that this constancy will maintain
itself for a long time belongs to that branch of the analysis of hazards
which passes from past events to the probability of future events; and
taking as a basis the births observed from 1745 to 1784, it is a bet of
almost 4 against 1 that at Paris the annual births of boys will
constantly surpass for a century the births of girls; there is then no
reason to be astonished that this has taken place for a half-century.
Let us take another example of the development of constant ratios which
events present in the measure that they are multiplied. Let us imagine a
series of urns arranged circularly, and each containing a very great
number of white balls and black balls; the ratio of white balls to the
black in the urns being originally very different and such, for example,
that one of these urns contains only white balls, while another contains
only black balls. If one draws a ball from the first urn in order to put
it into the second, and, after having shaken the second urn in order to
mix well the new ball with the others, one draws a ball to put it into
the third urn, and so on to the last urn, from which is drawn a ball to
put into the first, and if this series is recommenced continually, the
analysis of probability shows us that the ratios of the white balls to
the black in these urns will end by being the same and equal to the
ratio of the sum of all the white balls to the sum of all the black
balls contained in the urns. Thus by this regular mode of change the
primitive irregularity of these ratios disappears eventually in order to
make room for the most simple order. Now if among these urns one
intercalate new ones in which the ratio of the sum of the white balls to
the sum of the black balls which they contain differs from the
preceding, continuing indefinitely in the totality of the urns the
drawings which we have just indicated, the simple order established in
the old urns will be at first disturbed, and the ratios of the white
balls to the black balls will become irregular; but little by little
this irregularity will disappear in order to make room for a new order,
which will finally be that of the equality of the ratios of the white
balls to the black balls contained in the urns. We may apply these
results to all the combinations of nature in which the constant forces
by which their elements are animated establish regular modes of action,
suited to bring about in the very heart of chaos systems governed by
admirable laws.
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