A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
In order to apply this method with success it is necessary to vary the
circumstances of the observations or the experiences in such a manner as
to avoid the constant causes of error. It is necessary that the
observations should be numerous, and that they should be so much the
more so as there are more elements to determine; for the weight of the
mean result increases as the number of observations divided by the
number of the elements. It is still necessary that the elements follow
in these observations a different course; for if the course of the two
elements were exactly the same, which would render their coefficients
proportional in equation of conditions, these elements would form only a
single unknown quantity and it would be impossible to distinguish them
by these observations. Finally it is necessary that the observations
should be precise; this condition, the first of all, increases greatly
the weight of the result the expression of which has for a divisor the
sum of the squares of the deviations of the observations from this
result. With these precautions we shall be able to make use of the
preceding method and measure the degree of confidence which the results
deduced from a great number of observations merit.
The rule which we have just given to conclude equations of condition,
final equations, amount to rendering a minimum the sum of the squares of
the errors of observations; for each equation of condition becomes exact
by substituting in it the observation plus its error; and if we draw
from it the expression of this error, it is easy to see that the
condition of the _minimum_ of the sum of the squares of these
expressions gives the rule in question. This rule is the more precise as
the observations are more numerous; but even in the case where their
number is small it appears natural to employ the same rule which in all
cases offers a simple means of obtaining without groping the corrections
which we seek to determine. It serves further to compare the precision
of the divers astronomical tables of the same star. These tables may
always be supposed as reduced to the same form, and then they differ
only by the epochs, the mean movements and the coefficients of the
arguments; for if one of them contains a coefficient which is not found
in the others, it is clear that this amounts to supposing zero in them
as the coefficient of this argument. If now we rectify these tables by
the totality of the good observations, they would satisfy the condition
that the sum of the squares of the errors should be a minimum; the
tables which, compared to a considerable number of observations,
approach nearest this condition merit then the preference.
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