A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The probability of the errors which each element still leaves to be
feared is proportional to the number whose hyperbolic logarithm is unity
raised to a power equal to the square of the error taken as a minus
quantity and multiplied by a constant coefficient which may be
considered as the modulus of the probability of the errors; because, the
error remaining the same, its probability decreases with rapidity when
the former increases; so that the element obtained weighs, if I may thus
speak toward the truth, as much more as this modulus is greater. I would
call for this reason this modulus the _weight_ of the element or of the
result. This weight is the greatest possible in the system of
factors—the most advantageous; it is this which gives to this system
superiority over others. By a remarkable analogy of this weight with
those of bodies compared at their common centre of gravity it results
that if the same element is given by divers systems, composed each of a
great number of observations, the most advantageous, the mean result of
their totality is the sum of the products of each partial result by its
weight. Moreover, the total weight of the results of the divers systems
is the sum of their partial weights; so that the probability of the
errors of the mean result of their totality is proportional to the
number which has unity for an hyperbolic logarithm raised to a power
equal to the square of the error taken as minus and multiplied by the
sum of the weights. Each weight depends in truth upon the law of the
probability of error of each system, and almost always this law is
unknown; but happily I have been able to eliminate the factor which
contains it by means of the sum of the squares of the variations of the
observations in this system from their mean result. It would then be
desirable in order to complete our knowledge of the results obtained by
the totality of a great number of observations that we write by the side
of each result the weight which corresponds to it; analysis furnishes
for this object both general and simple methods. When we have thus
obtained the exponential which represents the law of the probability of
errors, we shall have the probability that the error of the result is
included within given limits by taking within the limits the integral of
the product of this exponential by the differential of the error and
multiplying it by the square root of the weight of the result divided by
the circumference whose diameter is unity. Hence it follows that for the
same probability the errors of the results are reciprocal to the square
roots of their weights, which serves to compare their respective
precision.
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