A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
this mode of election in the societies which had adopted it.
The election by the absolute majority of the suffrages unites to the
certainty of not admitting any one of the candidates whom this majority
rejects, the advantage of expressing most often the desire of the
assembly. It always coincides with the preceding mode when there are
only two candidates. Indeed it exposes an assembly to the inconvenience
of rendering elections interminable. But experience has shown that this
inconvenience is nil, and that the general desire to put an end to
elections soon unites the majority of the suffrages upon one of the
candidates.
The choice among several propositions relative to the same object ought
to be subjected, seemingly, to the same rules as the election among
several candidates. But there exists between the two cases this
difference, namely, that the merit of a candidate does not exclude that
of his competitors; but if it is necessary to choose among propositions
which are contrary, the truth of the one excludes the truth of the
others. Let us see how one ought then to view this question.
Let us give to each voter an urn which contains an infinite number of
balls, and let us suppose that he distributes them upon the divers
propositions according to the respective probabilities which he
attributes to them. It is clear that the total number of balls
expressing certainty, and the voter being by the hypothesis assured that
one of the propositions ought to be true, he will distribute this number
at length upon the propositions. The problem is reduced then to this,
namely, to determine the combinations in which the balls will be
distributed in such a manner that there may be more of them upon the
first proposition of the ticket than upon the second, more upon the
second than upon the third, etc.; to make the sums of all the numbers of
balls relative to each proposition in the divers combinations, and to
divide this sum by the number of combinations; the quotients will be the
numbers of balls that one ought to attribute to the propositions upon a
certain ticket. One finds by analysis that in going from the last
proposition these quotients are among themselves as the following
quantities: first, unity divided by the number of propositions; second,
the preceding quantity, augmented by unity, divided by the number of
propositions less one; third, this second quantity, augmented by unity,
divided by the number of propositions less two, and so on for the
others. One will write then upon each ticket these quantities at the
side of the corresponding propositions, and adding the relative
quantities to each proposition upon the divers tickets the sums will
indicate by their magnitude the order of preference which the assembly
gives to these propositions.
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