A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Let us speak a word about the manner of renewing assemblies which should
change in totality in a definite number of years. Ought the renewal to
be made at one time, or is it advantageous to divide it among these
years? According to the last method the assembly would be formed under
the influence of the divers opinions dominant during the time of its
renewal; the opinion which obtained then would be probably the mean of
all these opinions. The assembly would receive thus at the time the same
advantage that is given to it by the extension of the elections of its
members to all parts of the territory which it represents. Now if one
considers what experience has only too clearly taught, namely, that
elections are always directed in the greatest degree by dominant
opinions, one will feel how useful it is to temper these opinions, the
ones by the others, by means of a partial renewal.
CHAPTER XIII.
_CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF THE JUDGMENTS OF TRIBUNALS._
Analysis confirms what simple common sense teaches us, namely, the
correctness of judgments is as much more probable as the judges are more
numerous and more enlightened. It is important then that tribunals of
appeal should fulfil these two conditions. The tribunals of the first
instance standing in closer relation to those amenable offer to the
higher tribunal the advantage of a first judgment already probable, and
with which the latter often agree, be it in compromising or in desisting
from their claims. But if the uncertainty of the matter in litigation
and its importance determine a litigant to have recourse to the tribunal
of appeals, he ought to find in a greater probability of obtaining an
equitable judgment greater security for his fortune and the compensation
for the trouble and expense which a new procedure entails. It is this
which had no place in the institution of the reciprocal appeal of the
tribunals of the district, an institution thereby very prejudicial to
the interest of the citizens. It would be perhaps proper and conformable
to the calculus of probabilities to demand a majority of at least two
votes in a tribunal of appeal in order to invalidate the sentence of the
lower tribunal. One would obtain this result if the tribunal of appeal
being composed of an even number of judges the sentence should stand in
the case of the equality of votes.
I shall consider particularly the judgments in criminal matters.
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