A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
It is easy to apply this principle to life annuities upon one or several
persons, and to savings banks, and to assurance societies of any nature.
Suppose that one proposes to form a table of life annuities according to
a given table of mortality. A life annuity payable at the end of five
years, for example, and reduced to an actual amount is, by this
principle, equal to the product of the two following quantities, namely,
the annuity divided by the fifth power of unity augmented by the rate of
interest and the probability of paying it. This probability is the
inverse ratio of the number of individuals inscribed in the table
opposite to the age of that one who settles the annuity to the number
inscribed opposite to this age augmented by five years. Forming, then, a
series of fractions whose denominators are the products of the number of
persons indicated in the table of mortality as living at the age of that
one who settles the annuity, by the successive powers of unity augmented
by the rate of interest, and whose numerators are the products of the
annuity by the number of persons living at the same age augmented
successively by one year, by two years, etc., the sum of these fractions
will be the amount required for the life annuity at that age.
Let us suppose that a person wishes by means of a life annuity to assure
to his heirs an amount payable at the end of the year of his death. In
order to determine the value of this annuity, one may imagine that the
person borrows in life at a bank this capital and that he places it at
perpetual interest in the same bank. It is clear that this same capital
will be due by the bank to his heirs at the end of the year of his
death; but he will have paid each year only the excess of the life
interest over the perpetual interest. The table of life annuities will
then show that which the person ought to pay annually to the bank in
order to assure this capital after his death.
Maritime assurance, that against fire and storms, and generally all the
institutions of this kind, are computed on the same principles. A
merchant having vessels at sea wishes to assure their value and that of
their cargoes against the dangers that they may run; in order to do
this, he gives a sum to a company which becomes responsible to him for
the estimated value of his cargoes and his vessels. The ratio of this
value to the sum which ought to be given for the price of the assurance
depends upon the dangers to which the vessels are exposed and can be
appreciated only by numerous observations upon the fate of vessels which
have sailed from port for the same destination.
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