At the same time, the investor in Consols in the early part of the
century had done very well in three different ways. The “security” of
his investment had come to be considered as near absolute perfection
as was possible. Its capital value had uniformly appreciated, partly
for the reason just stated, but chiefly because the steady fall in the
rate of interest increased the number of years’ purchase of the annual
income which represented the capital.[3] And the annual money income
had a purchasing power which on the whole was increasing. If, for
example, we consider the seventy years from 1826 to 1896 (and ignore
the great improvement immediately after Waterloo), we find that the
capital value of Consols rose steadily, with only temporary set-backs,
from 79 to 109 (in spite of Goschen’s conversion from a 3 per cent
rate to a 2¾ per cent rate in 1889 and a 2½ per cent rate effective
in 1903), while the purchasing power of the annual dividends, even
after allowing for the reduced rates of interest, had increased 50
per cent. But Consols, too, had added the virtue of stability to that
of improvement. Except in years of crisis Consols never fell below 90
during the reign of Queen Victoria; and even in ’48, when thrones were
crumbling, the mean price of the year fell but 5 points. Ninety when
she ascended the throne, they reached their maximum with her in the
year of Diamond Jubilee. What wonder that our parents thought Consols a
good investment!
[3] If (for example) the rate of interest falls from 4½ per
cent to 3 per cent, 3 per cent Consols rise in value from
66 to 100.
Thus there grew up during the nineteenth century a large, powerful,
and greatly respected class of persons, well-to-do individually and
very wealthy in the aggregate, who owned neither buildings, nor land,
nor businesses, nor precious metals, but titles to an annual income in
legal-tender money. In particular, that peculiar creation and pride
of the nineteenth century, the savings of the middle class, had been
mainly thus embarked. Custom and favourable experience had acquired for
such investments an unimpeachable reputation for security.
Before the war these medium fortunes had already begun to suffer some
loss (as compared with the summit of their prosperity in the middle
’nineties) from the rise in prices and also in the rate of interest.
But the monetary events which have accompanied and have followed the
war have taken from them about one-half of their real value in England,
seven-eighths in France, eleven-twelfths in Italy, and virtually the
whole in Germany and in the succession states of Austria-Hungary and
Russia.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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