At any rate, under the influence of these two forces--the financial
necessities of Governments and the political influence of the debtor
class--sometimes the one and sometimes the other, the progress of
inflation has been _continuous_, if we consider long periods, ever
since money was first devised in the sixth century B.C. Sometimes the
standard of value has depreciated of itself; failing this, debasements
have done the work.
Nevertheless it is easy at all times, as a result of the way we use
money in daily life, to forget all this and to look on money as itself
the absolute standard of value; and when, besides, the actual events
of a hundred years have not disturbed his illusions, the average man
regards what has been normal for three generations as a part of the
permanent social fabric.
The course of events during the nineteenth century favoured such ideas.
During its first quarter, the very high prices of the Napoleonic Wars
were followed by a somewhat rapid improvement in the value of money.
For the next seventy years, with some temporary fluctuations, the
tendency of prices continued to be downwards, the lowest point being
reached in 1896. But while this was the tendency as regards direction,
the remarkable feature of this long period was the relative _stability_
of the price level. Approximately the _same_ level of price ruled in or
about the years 1826, 1841, 1855, 1862, 1867, 1871, and 1915. Prices
were also level in the years 1844, 1881, and 1914. If we call the index
number of these latter years 100, we find that, for the period of close
on a century from 1826 to the outbreak of war, the maximum fluctuation
in either direction was 30 points, the index number never rising above
130 and never falling below 70. No wonder that we came to believe in
the stability of money contracts over a long period. The metal _gold_
might not possess all the theoretical advantages of an artificially
regulated standard, but it could not be tampered with and had proved
reliable in practice.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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