By these means they can get along and do their business with an amount
of notes having an aggregate real value substantially less than
before. For example, the notes in circulation become worth altogether
$20,000,000 instead of $36,000,000, with the result that the next
inflationary levy by the Government, falling on a smaller amount, must
be at a greater rate in order to yield a given sum.
When the public take alarm faster than they can change their habits,
and, in their efforts to avoid loss, run down the amount of real
resources, which they hold in the form of money, _below_ the working
minimum, seeking to supply their daily needs for cash by borrowing,
they get penalised, as in Germany in 1923, by prodigious rates of
money-interest. The rates rise, as we have seen in the previous
chapter, until the rate of interest on money equals or exceeds the
anticipated rate of the depreciation of money. Indeed it is always
likely, when money is rapidly depreciating, that there will be
recurrent periods of scarcity of currency, because the public, in their
anxiety not to hold too much money, will fail to provide themselves
even with the minimum which they will require in practice.
Whilst economists have sometimes described these phenomena in terms of
an increase in the velocity of circulation due to loss of confidence
in the currency; nevertheless there are not, I think, many passages in
economic literature where the matter is clearly analysed. Professor
Cannan’s article on “The Application of the Apparatus of Supply and
Demand to Units of Currency” (_Economic Journal_, December 1921) is
one of the most noteworthy. He points out that the common assumption
that “the elasticity of demand for money is unity” is equivalent to
the assertion that a mere variation in the quantity of money does
not affect the willingness and habits of the public as holders of
purchasing power in that form. But in extreme cases this assumption
does not hold; for if it did, there would be no limit to the sums which
the Government could extract from the public by means of inflation.
It is, therefore, unsafe to assume that the elasticity of demand is
necessarily unity. Professor Lehfeldt followed this up in a subsequent
issue of the _Economic Journal_ (December 1922) by a calculation of
the actual elasticity of demand for money in some recent instances.
He found that between July 1920 and April 1922, the elasticity of
demand for money fell to an average of about ·73 in Austria, ·67 in
Poland, and ·5 in Germany. Thus in the last stages of inflation the
prodigious increase in the velocity of circulation may have as much,
or more, effect in raising prices and depreciating the exchanges than
the increase in the volume of notes. The note-issuing authorities often
cry out against what they regard as the unfair and anomalous fact of
the notes falling in value _more_ than in proportion to their increased
volume. Yet it is nothing of the kind; it is merely the result of the
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