This doctrine in its baldest form runs as follows: (1) The purchasing
power of an inconvertible currency within its own country, _i.e._ the
currency’s _internal_ purchasing power, depends on the currency policy
of the Government and the currency habits of the people, in accordance
with the Quantity Theory of Money just discussed. (2) The purchasing
power of an inconvertible currency in a foreign country, _i.e._ the
currency’s _external_ purchasing power, must be the rate of exchange
between the home-currency and the foreign-currency, multiplied by
the foreign-currency’s purchasing power in its own country. (3) In
conditions of equilibrium the _internal_ and _external_ purchasing
powers of a currency must be the _same_, allowance being made for
transport charges and import and export taxes; for otherwise a movement
of trade would occur in order to take advantage of the inequality.
(4) It follows, therefore, from (1), (2), and (3) that the rate of
exchange between the home-currency and the foreign-currency must
tend in equilibrium to be the ratio between the purchasing powers of
the home-currency at home and of the foreign-currency in the foreign
country. This ratio between the respective home purchasing powers of
the two currencies is designated their “purchasing power parity.”
If, therefore, we find that the internal and external purchasing
powers of the home-currency are widely different, and, which is the
same thing, that the actual exchange rates differ widely from the
purchasing power parities, then we are justified in inferring that
equilibrium is not established, and that, as time goes on, forces will
come into play to bring the actual exchange rates and the purchasing
power parities nearer together. The actual exchanges are often more
sensitive and more volatile than the purchasing power parities, being
subject to speculation, to sudden movements of funds, to seasonal
influences, and to _anticipations_ of impending changes in purchasing
power parity (due to relative inflation or deflation); though also on
other occasions they may lag behind. Nevertheless it is the purchasing
power parity, according to this doctrine, which corresponds to the old
gold par. This is the point about which the exchanges fluctuate, and at
which they must ultimately come to rest; with one material difference,
namely, that it is not itself a fixed point,--since, if internal prices
move differently in the two countries under comparison, the purchasing
power parity also moves, so that equilibrium may be restored, not only
by a movement in the market rate of exchange, but also by a movement of
the purchasing power parity itself.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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