At first sight this theory appears to be one of great practical
utility; and many persons have endeavoured to draw important practical
conclusions about the future course of the exchanges from charts
exhibiting the divergences between the market rate of exchange and the
purchasing power parities,--undeterred by the perplexity whether an
existing divergence from equilibrium will be remedied by a movement of
the exchanges or of the purchasing power parity or of both.
In practical applications of the doctrine there are, however, two
further difficulties, which we have allowed so far to escape our
attention,--both of them arising out of the words _allowance being
made for transport charges and import and export taxes_. The first
difficulty is how to make allowance for such charges and taxes. The
second difficulty is how to treat purchasing power over goods and
services which _do not enter into international trade at all_.
The doctrine, in the form in which it is generally applied, endeavours
to deal with the first difficulty by assuming that the percentage
difference between internal and external purchasing power at some
standard date, when approximate equilibrium may be presumed to have
existed, generally the year 1913, may be taken as an approximately
satisfactory correction for the same disturbing factors at the present
time. For example, instead of calculating directly the cost of a
standard set of goods at home and abroad respectively, the calculations
are made that $2 are required to buy in the United States a standard
set which $1 would have bought in 1913, and that £2·43 are required to
buy in England what £1 would have bought in 1913. On this basis (the
pre-war purchasing power parity being assumed to be in equilibrium
with the pre-war exchange of $4·86 = £1) the present purchasing power
parity between dollars and sterling is given by $4 = £1, since 4·86 ×
2 ÷ 2·43 = 4.
The obvious objection to this method of correction is that transport
and tariff costs, especially if this term is taken to cover all
export and import regulations, including prohibitions and official or
semi-official combines for differentiating between export and home
prices, are notoriously widely different in many cases from those which
existed in 1913. We should not get the same result if we were to take
some year other than 1913 as the basis of the calculation.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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