The second difficulty--the treatment of purchasing power over articles
which do not enter into international trade--is still more serious.
For, if we restrict ourselves to articles entering into international
trade and make exact allowance for transport and tariff costs, we
should find that the theory is always in accordance with the facts,
with perhaps a short time-lag, the purchasing power parity being never
very far from the market rate of exchange. Indeed, it is the whole
business of the international merchant to see that this is so; for
whenever the rates are temporarily out of parity he is in a position
to make a profit by moving goods. The prices of cotton in New York,
Liverpool, Havre, Hamburg, Genoa, and Prague, expressed in dollars,
sterling, francs, marks, lire, and krone respectively, are never for
any length of time much divergent from one another on the basis of
the exchange rates actually obtaining in the market, due allowance
being made for tariffs and the cost of moving cotton from one centre to
another; and the same is true of other articles of international trade,
though with an increasing time-lag as we pass to articles which are
not standardised or are not handled in organised markets. In fact, the
theory, stated thus, is a truism, and as nearly as possible jejune.
For this reason practical applications of the theory are not thus
restricted. The standard set of commodities selected is not confined
to goods which are exported from and imported into the countries
under comparison, but is the same set, generally speaking, as is used
for compiling index numbers of general purchasing power or of the
working-class cost of living. Yet applied in this way--namely, in a
comparison of movements of the _general_ index numbers of home prices
in two countries with movements in the rates of exchange between their
currencies--the theory requires a further assumption for its validity,
namely, that in the long run the home prices of the goods and services
which do not enter into international trade, move in more or less the
same proportions as those which do.[27]
[27] “Our calculation of the purchasing power parity rests
strictly on the proviso that the rise in prices in the
countries concerned has affected all commodities in a like
degree. If that proviso is not fulfilled, then the actual
exchange rate may deviate from the calculated purchasing
power parity.” Cassel, _Money and Foreign Exchange after
1914_, p. 154.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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