Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
Prices of corn, hogs, etc., are determined chiefly by supply and demand,
together with the occasional influence of strategic manipulation. The
system as operated by the packers and Board of Trade speculators really
reflected conditions before the war with remarkable accuracy. During the
war, so many extraordinary conditions were at work that it was
impossible to measure supply-and-demand conditions at all accurately,
and it is impossible to say how efficiently the speculators did their
work.
But speculators and packers, in so far as they set prices, are concerned
solely in making a profit for themselves. If, by manipulating the
market, they can make a bigger profit than by trying to express
supply-and-demand conditions with mathematical exactitude, then they may
be expected to manipulate. The violence with which hog prices swing
above and below cost of production would suggest that the packers are
consciously endeavoring to send prices too low for a year or two, in
order later to send them too high. They go into the low-price period
with a small amount of high-priced products on hand, and come out into
the higher level with a large quantity of low-price products. It would
seem that by laying in a stock of hog products at the low point, they
hope to profit later by an advance in price.
It is typical of supply and demand, as it makes prices of standard farm
products, that a small crop sells for more than a large crop. A twenty
per cent decrease in the supply raises the price more than twenty per
cent, possibly thirty per cent, or even fifty per cent. Old Gregory
King, in the latter part of the Seventeenth century, recognized this
principle when he stated:
“We take it a defect in the harvest may raise the price of corn [wheat]
in the following proportions:
Defect. Above the common rate.
1 tenth raises the price 3 tenths
2 tenths raises the price 8 tenths
3 tenths raises the price 16 tenths
4 tenths raises the price 28 tenths
Modern statistical study indicates that this statement of King’s is
somewhat exaggerated, but undeniably the tendency exists among standard
agricultural products for small crops to bring in a greater return than
large crops. In other words, the demand for farm products is inelastic.
The ultimate consumer wants just so much of staple foods, no more, no
less. If farmers raise more than so much, they must accept a
considerable reduction in price; if they raise less, they can command an
advance out of all proportion to the shortage. The law of demand for
staple farm products being inelastic, small crops bring in a greater
return than large crops.[3]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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