Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
To refine the method to meet market conditions, we need to know the
ratio between corn and hogs at different seasons of the year. There are
seasonal periods of over-supply and scarcity of both corn and hogs. In
November, for instance, the 1907–1916 price of corn was 67.2 cents and
the price of hogs $7.23, or a ratio of 10.6 bushels to one hundred
pounds of hog flesh, while in March of the ten-year period the average
price of corn was 61.7 cents and the price of hogs $7.66, or a ratio of
12.4 bushels of corn for one hundred pounds of hog flesh. In like
manner, there is a fairly normal ratio for each month of the year and
for each week of the year. All this is on the assumption that hogs are
simply condensed corn. It does not take into account the fact that hogs
have been made out of corn at varying values during a period of about a
year preceding time of marketing. Obviously, then, we must have a
composite corn value. In matters of this sort, statisticians know that
it is absolutely impossible to weight matters so as to represent actual
conditions, but at the same time they know that absolute accuracy is not
at all essential, that in fact a difference in weighting will ordinarily
make very little difference in results.
While the author personally recommended to the commission appointed by
the Food Administration to investigate cost of producing hogs, a
slightly different weighting, yet nevertheless we will use here the
weighting recommended by that committee. The committee assumed that the
corn going into the making of a hog was distributed over twelve months;
that during the first month 2 per cent of this corn went into the hog or
its dam; the second month, 2 per cent; third month, 2 per cent; fourth
month, 3 per cent; fifth month, 4 per cent; sixth month, 6 per cent;
seventh month, 5 per cent; eighth month, 9 per cent; ninth month, 15 per
cent; tenth month, 20 per cent; eleventh month, 17 per cent, and twelfth
month, 15 per cent. Securing composite corn values by this kind of
weighting, we find that as an average of the ten-year period, 1907–1916,
the January ratio was 11 bushels; February, 11.6 bushels; March, 12.4
bushels; April, 12.7 bushels; May, 12.3 bushels; June, 12.1 bushels;
July, 12 bushels; August, 11.8 bushels; September, 11.8 bushels;
October, 11.3 bushels; November, 10.6 bushels, and December, 10.4
bushels.
[Illustration:
Illustrating the departure of actual Chicago hog prices from the
ten-year standard ratio, corrected seasonally.
]
For sake of example, determine cost of producing hogs for the Chicago
market for the month of April, 1918. Corn values month by month,
beginning April, 1917, were as follows: 144.9 cents, 163.9 cents, 170.7
cents, 200 cents, 197.2 cents, 208.6 cents, 199.2 cents, 201 cents,
173.2 cents, 180.6 cents, 174.5 cents, and 172.3 cents. Weighting these
on the basis indicated, we get a composite value of corn of 182.5 cents.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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