Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
The historical ratio for the month of April is 12.7 bushels of such
composite corn. Multiply 182.5 cents by 12.7, and we secure $23.18 as
the cost of producing hogs for the Chicago market in April of 1918,
under the ten-year ratio method. The actual price was $17.45, or a loss
of $5.73 per hundredweight. The chart which is published herewith
illustrates graphically results secured in the same manner for every
month during the ten-year period beginning 1907.
Ordinarily, Chicago No. 2 corn measures very accurately the changes in
corn value on the farm, the corn out of which hogs are actually made.
During part of the winter of 1917–1918, Chicago No. 2 corn ceased to be
quite such an accurate measure as usual, for the reason that the quality
of the crop was so poor that only a small amount of corn graded No. 2,
and for the further reason that there were severe transportation
difficulties.
Some people have urged not using Chicago No. 2 corn values, but corn
values on farms as reported to the United States Department of
Agriculture, monthly, by crop reporters. This price is no doubt compiled
with considerable accuracy, but is open to objection for the reason that
it does not represent a uniform grade. In soft corn years, a bushel of
corn as valued by crop reporters on farms is poor stuff. In such years,
there is always a wider spread between the farm value of corn and the
Chicago No. 2 value than in years when the quality is good. It might do
fairly well to take farm values of corn and farm values of hogs if
definite grades could be established. If they can not be, it is probably
best to take Chicago values of No. 2 corn and heavy hogs as a basis,
making allowance occasionally when exceptional conditions arise in the
way of artificial prices temporarily created by transportation
difficulties, and remembering always that the true point at issue is to
apply a ratio between certain grades of actual feed on the one hand and
a certain grade of hogs on the other. This is a technical matter which
really can not be decided by lawyers or business men, however competent
such men may be to run a food administration or a department of
agriculture, or by farmers, however competent such men may be to feed
hogs. It is a matter which must be handled by men who understand markets
and who have had sufficient economic training so that they understand a
little something of the making of index numbers, and who have had
sufficient touch with agricultural conditions so that they understand a
little something of the technique of feeding hogs.
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