Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
What would happen if cost of production were to be paid in the hog
market day by day, year in and year out? By cost of production is meant
the 11.5-bushel ratio, modified seasonally. Packers can think of many
objections. For instance, they can conceive of periods of a year or two
at a time when the 11.5-bushel ratio would necessitate paying the
farmers more for their hogs than they could get for the meat. Equally,
they can see how it might be that for periods of a year or two at a
time, they would be able to get out of the consumers a price equivalent
to considerably more than the 11.5-bushel ratio. Admittedly, these
objections are sound under present conditions; supply-and-demand price
is the only price adapted to the _laissez faire_ situation.
If farmers as a class are to secure cost of production for their hogs
month after month and year after year, they must organize into powerful
associations to do business co-operatively. They must control the supply
of hogs with an iron hand and an intelligent head. They must be willing
to play fair with the consumers and not charge more for their hogs than
the ratio of the past sixty years. In fact, it is conceivable that they
might be able to sell their hogs at slightly less than the 11.5-bushel
ratio of the past sixty years. If the organization was really powerful
enough to enforce the cost-of-production ratio over any period of time,
the market risk, which has been a very serious factor in the past, would
disappear. This risk has been such a factor that it is quite possible
that farmers would be willing to produce enough hogs to satisfy the
market at an eleven-bushel ratio if the risk no longer existed. The
author estimates that as an average of the past sixty years the
consuming public has been paying at least 50 cents per hundredweight
more than necessary for its hog products. This extra 50 cents has been
in the nature of risk insurance.
It is conceivable that both farmer producers and city consumers might
organize to carry this risk between them, the city consumer co-operative
organizations agreeing in advance to take a certain number of pounds of
hog products, and the farmer producing organizations agreeing to furnish
such a quantity of hog products on the basis of a corn-hog ratio
representing cost of production.
CATTLE PRICES AND THE RATIO METHOD
A ratio between corn and cattle does not represent cost of production
nearly as accurately as a ratio between corn and hogs. However, such a
ratio, when worked out and applied over a long period of years, reveals
the interesting historical fact that the swings in cattle prices above
and below the ratio line are periods of about seven years each way.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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