Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
An illustration of the strategy of the hog market is a case in point.
Imagine a Monday hog market in early March, at which season of the year
prices are generally rising. Suppose that instead of the accustomed
40,000 Monday hog run, 60,000 have been received. Suppose that, owing to
car shortage or some other reason, eastern shippers are out of the
market. There is a larger supply than usual and a smaller demand, and
prices decline 15 or 20 cents a hundredweight, perhaps very much more.
“Supply and demand,” say the packers and practical economists, with
unction. But at that very time every one may know that the potential
supply in the country is very small, and the potential demand is very
great. At that very time this wider situation may be taken fully into
account by the packers in the prices which they are charging for their
products to the retailers. The hog market may have broken 15 to 20
cents, but the lard, ham and bacon markets may have held steady or even
advanced.
The packers, in the prices which they pay for live hogs and the prices
which they charge for hog products, are governed chiefly by strategic
considerations. Day by day they change their prices to meet the surface
indications of changing supply and demand conditions. They may sometimes
exercise such poor strategy that they will be compelled to manufacture
hog products at a loss for a time. The prime consideration is to buy as
cheaply as possible and to sell as high as possible and yet meet the
competition, which is rather more active than many farmers have
supposed.
Now it is obvious that a ratio system of hog prices is not compatible
with the system employed by the packers, or by any typical business man,
for that matter. Big business enjoys a speculative profit which comes
with fluctuating prices. But a daily fluctuating price is not consistent
with the idea of a just price or a cost-ofproduction price. If the
packing business were a monopoly under government control, stabilized
prices under the ratio system might be paid with some degree of
satisfaction, provided we assume that the governmental authorities have
a real insight into market conditions and a thoro understanding of the
ratio system of price judgment as related to supply and demand. Under
the present regime, however, it is difficult to see much prospect of hog
prices ever being stabilized, for the reason that under a _laissez
faire_ system business profits result from fluctuating prices, those
businesses profiting most which are best organized and most long-lived,
and are able to take strategic positions over long periods of time.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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