An Estimate of the True Value of Vaccination as a Security Against Small PoxGreenhow, T. M. (Thomas Michael)
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An Estimate of the True Value of Vaccination as a Security Against Small Pox
Greenhow, T. M. (Thomas Michael)
Smallpox -- Vaccination; Smallpox vaccine
If we compare the number of deaths from Small Pox, which took place
during the twenty-five years (from 1784 to 1798 inclusive) which
immediately preceded Vaccination, amounting to 46,996, with the number
which has taken place during the twenty-five years which have elapsed
since its introduction (from 1799 to 1823 inclusive), amounting to
25,869, we shall find that an actual diminution has taken place of no
fewer than 21,127, or nearly one half of the whole. It may, therefore,
be confidently assumed, even upon this very simple calculation, that a
number of lives equal to this diminution has been saved by Vaccination,
within the bills of mortality alone. And as this diminution in the
amount of mortality from Small Pox is going on in a progressive ratio,
it is probable that the next twenty-five years will afford a yet more
striking result.
If we extend this calculation to the whole of Great Britain and
Ireland, assuming that the ratio in the diminution of deaths has been
the same over the united kingdom as within the London bills of
mortality—(and there are various good reasons for believing that it has
been greater)—we cannot but be struck with the immense saving of human
life which has already taken place. Sir Gilbert Blane and Dr. Letsom
separately calculated the annual loss of lives from Small Pox, in Great
Britain and Ireland, during the last thirty years of the eighteenth
century.—One of these eminent physicians estimated them at 34,260, and
the other at 36,000 (Moore’s History of Small Pox, p. 300): For our
present purpose, we will take a medium number, as being probably
nearest to the truth. Assuming then, that the number of deaths from
Small Pox, in the United Kingdom, during each of the twenty-five years
which preceded the introduction of Vaccination, amounted to 35,000, the
amount, during the whole of that period, must have been 875,000. But if
the diminution on the whole of this number has been equal to that which
is proved to have taken place within the London bills of mortality,
during the last twenty-five years, it must have been reduced to 481,644
only, and an actual saving of the lives of 393,356 individuals must
have been accomplished.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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