Annals, Anecdotes and Legends: A Chronicle of Life AssuranceFrancis, John, of the Bank of England
History
Annals, Anecdotes and Legends: A Chronicle of Life Assurance
Francis, John, of the Bank of England
Life insurance
The opinion of posterity is divided upon his merits. “By the most
simple and elegant formulæ,” says Francis Baily, “he pointed out the
method of solving all the most common questions relative to the value
of annuities on single and joint lives, reversions, and survivorships.”
The subsequent editions of his works prove that he was aware of his
errors of detail, by correcting them. He enlarged the boundaries of the
science which he loved, and encouraged others to follow in the same
path. Although his hypothesis may not be applicable to all occasions
and circumstances, and though later discoveries proved that it could
not be always safely adopted, “nevertheless it is still of great use
in the investigation of many cases connected with this subject, and
will ever remain a proof of his superior genius and ability.” Such is
the opinion of Baily on the merits of De Moivre; but it has been added
by Morgan, that “on the whole the hypothesis of De Moivre has probably
done more harm than good, by turning the attention of mathematicians
from investigating the true laws of mortality.”
In 1737, an attempt was made to calculate the number of the people,
which was estimated at 6,000,000, an amount probably not very far from
the mark; as in 1688 the population was reckoned at a little over
5,000,000. Some important assistance was rendered in 1738, by the
publication of Kersseboom’s tables, taken from the records of life
annuities in Holland[10]; and as the ages of the annuitants had been
there recorded for 125 years, they proved a considerable aid to those
interested. So small was the progress made in England by 1746, that
Dr. Halley’s Breslau Tables and those of M. Kersseboom were the only
ones which gave anything like a representation of the true laws of
mortality. In this year, however, the “Essai sur les Probabilités de
la Durée de la Vie Humaine” of M. De Parcieux, with several valuable
tables deduced from the mortuary registers of religious houses
in France, and from the nominees in the French tontines, were an
additional contribution to our information.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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