Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, December 1899: Vol. LVI, November, 1899 to April, 1900Various
Science
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, December 1899: Vol. LVI, November, 1899 to April, 1900
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
How, then, shall he attain consistency and precision? To be consistent
and precise in the use of the word "relative" it is necessary to make
at the outset an arbitrary choice of a term of comparison, just as in
making comparative judgments of such a phenomenon as general
intelligence it is necessary to take as a standard the phenomenon as
observed in a particular community. The most suitable term of
comparison for all judgments of increase or decrease in social
phenomena is the increase or decrease of population per square mile
within the area and during the period studied. The increase of
population is arithmetically measured, and it stands in relations of
direct causation to every social change. The historian, therefore, in
forming his judgments of relative increase or decrease should always
take the increase or decrease of population per square mile as his
term of comparison.
What meaning, finally, shall be attached to the word "great" when the
historian wishes to distinguish "great" increase or "great" decrease
from "increase" or "decrease" in general, and absolute statistics are
not available? There is one, and, as far as I can see, only one,
perfectly satisfactory procedure.
Let the investigator subdivide the community which he is studying into
enumeration units according to the method suggested above for the
descriptive monograph. Let him then make as many tables as there are
ten-year periods in the general historical period that he is
investigating. That is to say, let him make a table for 1850, for
1860, for 1870, for 1880, and for 1890. Let him then proceed according
to the method laid down for the descriptive monograph, entering
opposite each Commonwealth the symbol for majority or minority, thus
showing by States, for each of the ten-year periods, the prevalence of
the trait or activity under investigation. Suppose, for example, that
the phenomenon studied is the growth of popular interest in prize
fighting since 1850. The historian should begin by asking, In what
States, if any, in 1850 were large majorities of the people interested
in prize fights to the extent of countenancing them and eagerly
following their progress? In what States were only small majorities so
interested, in what States only large minorities, and in what ones
only small minorities? The best answers that the historian can make to
these questions, after examining all the evidence that he can command,
he should record by entering the proper symbol against each State,
after which he should repeat the procedure for the date 1860, for the
date 1870, and so on. When his tables are thus completed, he should
count up the number of entries of each symbol in each table. If then
he finds that in less than half of his enumeration units--i. e., in
less than half of all the States and Territories--small minorities
have become large minorities, large minorities have become small
majorities, or small majorities have become large, he will be
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