With regard to the other question, Mr Kinglake appears to think that,
after the Russians had evacuated the Principalities (as they did
immediately on re-crossing the Danube), there was no further ground for
continuing the war, and that a naval blockade would have forced her to
conclude peace. But to have forced her to make peace, returning to the
_statu quo_, would by no means have answered our ends, for it would have
left her to repeat the aggression on a more favourable opportunity, with
the advantage of better understanding the conditions of success. That
she would have consented at that time to give any pledge for the
security of Turkey, is incredible, if we consider the course taken by
her diplomatists at the conferences in the following year, when she had
suffered so severely. But to capture Sebastopol and its fleet, would
give us the security we wanted, and the pressure of the blockade might
then be depended on for ending the war. The question then, in our
judgment, resolves itself into this: Was there a reasonable hope of at
once succeeding in the object of the invasion; and was common foresight
exercised in providing for the possibility of failure?
Events have answered the last question. Due provision was not made for
the possibility of a first failure. The country was aghast at the
position in which the army found itself; and we think that, in making
the statement we are about to quote, Mr Kinglake is recording a state of
opinion, which, though perfectly just, and always maintained to be just
in these pages, both during and after the war, had no existence at the
time he speaks of.
“Those who thought more warily than the multitude foresaw that the
enterprise might take time; but they also perceived that even this
result would not be one of unmixed evil; for if Russia should commit
herself to a lengthened conflict in the neighbourhood of Sebastopol,
she would be put to a great trial, and would see her wealth and
strength ruinously consumed by the mere stress of the distance between
the military centre of the empire and the south-westernmost angle of
the Crimea.”
All this is true; so true that Russia would have done well to leave
Sebastopol to its fate, rather than make those efforts to maintain it
which were so ruinous. Moreover the Crimea is, from its geographical
circumstances, always the most favourable point of Russian territory for
the operations of an enemy who commands the sea. Its form of an extended
peninsula renders it vulnerable at many points; it does not afford the
means of supplying the force necessary for its defence; and the supplies
and reinforcements, having to pass through a region that is always a
desert and sometimes a swamp, must be despatched with vast expense and
loss. The conditions of the theatre of operations selected were then all
in our favour; it only remained to provide adequately for the chances of
war, to render the enterprise judicious.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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