"Under the feet of the herald he had seen it crumble and fall in. "He had deduced from this that a weight five times as heavy added to that of the palanquin, would not fail to produce a landslide. "As to the prediction concerning the fever, it was based on what he had seen when in the war. "He had then observed that every wound is always followed by a disposition to fever; he therefore could not fail to deduce that the serious contusions occasioned by the fall of the prince would produce the inevitable consequences. "The judge was very much imprest with the perspicacity of this man; not only did he give him his liberty, but he engaged him in his personal service and in due time enabled him to make his fortune." We do not wish to affirm--any more than Yoritomo, for that matter--that fortunate deductions are always so magnificently rewarded as were those of this man. However, without the causes being so striking, many people have owed their fortune to the faculty which they possest of deducing results where the analogy of the past circumstances suggested to them what would happen. He warns us against the propensity which we have of too easily avoiding a conclusion which does not accord with our desires. "Too many people," said he, "wish to undertake to make deductions by eliminating the elements which deprive them of a desired decision. "They do not fail either to exaggerate the reasons which plead in favor of this decision; also we see many persons suffer from reasoning, instead of feeling the good effects of it." Those who cultivate common sense will never fall into this error, for they will have no difficulty in convincing themselves that by acting thus they do not deceive any one except themselves. By glossing over truth in order to weaken the logical consequences of deductions they are the first to be the victims of this childish trick. That which is called false deduction is rarely aught save the desire to escape a resolution which a just appraisement would not fail to dictate. It might be, also, that this twisting of judgment comes from a person having been, in some past time, subjected to unfortunate influences. By devoting oneself to the evolution of thought, of which we have already spoken when presenting the symbolical fan, and above all, by adopting the precepts which, following the method of Yoritomo, we are going to develop in the following lessons, we shall certainly succeed in checking the errors of false reasoning. "The important thing," said he, "is not to let wander the thought, which, after resting for a moment on the subject with which we are concerned and after touching lightly on ideas of a similar character, begins to stray very far from its basic principles. "Have you noted the flight of certain birds? "They commence by gathering at one point, then they describe a series of circles around this point, at first very small, but whose circumference enlarges at every sweep.