Daedalus : $b or, Science and the futureHaldane, J. B. S. (John Burdon Sanderson)
Philosophy
Daedalus : $b or, Science and the future
Haldane, J. B. S. (John Burdon Sanderson)
Biology; Science
the limit which we shall approach indefinitely.
Developments in this direction are tending to bring mankind more and
more together, to render life more and more complex, artificial, and
rich in possibilities--to increase indefinitely man’s powers for good
and evil.
But there are two prerequisites for all progress of this kind, namely
continuous supplies of human and mechanical power. As industries become
more and more closely interwoven, so that a dislocation of any one will
paralyse a dozen others (and that is the position towards which we are
rapidly moving), the ideal of the leaders of industry, under no matter
what economic system, will be directed less and less to the indefinite
increase of production in the intervals between such dislocations,
and more and more to stable and regular production, even at the cost
of reduction of profits and output while the industry is proceeding
normally. It is quite possible that capitalism itself may demand that
the control of certain key industries be handed over completely to the
workers in those industries, simply in order to reduce the number of
sporadic strikes in them. And as industrial progress continues an ever
larger number--perhaps the majority--of industries will become key
industries. The solution may be entirely different--we may well see
a return to feudalism. But the probability is that the problem will
be solved. This view may seem optimistic, but it is more likely than
the alternative thesis which may be briefly stated as follows: “_No
human society will ever succeed in producing a stable organization
in which the majority of the population is employed otherwise than in
agriculture, animal-rearing, hunting or fishing._” It took some
thousands of years to produce the stable agricultural society which
forms the basis of European life and whose morals we are too apt to
regard as eternal truths. It should take a shorter time to evolve a
stable industrial society. The people that do so will inherit the
earth. In sum, I believe that the progress of science will ultimately
make industrial injustice as self-destructive as it is now making
international injustice.
As for the supplies of mechanical power, it is axiomatic that the
exhaustion of our coal and oil-fields is a matter of centuries only.
As it has often been assumed that their exhaustion would lead to the
collapse of industrial civilization, I may perhaps be pardoned if I
give some of the reasons which lead me to doubt this proposition.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Daedalus : $b or, Science and the future — John Shaqi
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