To resume our pressure analogy, the natural increase of all organisms
leads to a “biological pressure.” So long as a species remains
unchanged, so long must it stay subjected to the full force of this
pressure. But if it changes in such a way that it can occupy a new
niche in environment, it is expanding into a vacuum or a region of
lower pressure. Natural increase soon fills this up to the same level
of pressure, and conditions thus become favourable for expansion into
new low-pressure areas previously out of reach of the normal range
of variation. Variation towards such “low-pressure” regions may be
progressive, retrogressive, or neutral: but it is obvious that at
each stage of evolution there will always be a low-pressure fringe,
representing a considerable fraction of the “low-pressure” area within
the range of variability, the occupation of which would be biologically
progressive.
Thus from the well-established biological premisses of (1) the tendency
to geometrical increase with consequent struggle for existence,
(2) some form of inherited variability, we can deduce as necessary
consequence, not only the familiar but none the less fundamental
fact of Natural Selection, but also the almost neglected fact that
a _certain fraction_ of the guiding force of Natural Selection will
inevitably be pushing organisms into changes that are progressive.
This will of course be true only so far as the general conditions of
the environment remain within certain limits: it is probable that too
great reductions of temperature or moisture on the surface of the
earth would lead to a gradual reversal of progress before the final
extinction of life. Up to the present, however, it is clear that such
conditions have not occurred, or, possibly, have occurred only for
short periods. The general state has been one in which steady, slow
progress has been achieved. Progress, like adaptation, is in pre-human
evolution almost entirely the resultant of blind chance and blind
necessity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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