Essays on Mankind and Political ArithmeticPetty, William, Sir
History
Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
Petty, William, Sir
London (England) -- Population; Population
1604 and 1605 5,135. A.
1621 and 1622 8,527 B.
1641 and 1642 11,883 C.
1661 and 1662 15,148. D.
1681 and 1682 22,331. E.
Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. That D
is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B within
293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B
and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C
within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences
(every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in
40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and
without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the
number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which,
multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page
of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because
there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at
8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts differing
inconsiderably from each other.
We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in
about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of
inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for
the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first
say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole
territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be
eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with which
account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the bishop’s late
numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore, although
the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated
truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we
want at present.
As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be
found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the
aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per
annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24
births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally
and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people
doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600
people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there shall die
12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the
people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently the
supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to
reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions were
not exact, we had rather call 1,200.
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