Essays on Mankind and Political ArithmeticPetty, William, Sir
History
Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
Petty, William, Sir
London (England) -- Population; Population
There are also other good observations, that even in the country one in
about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five births
for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will die per annum
out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be
five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we
have two fair computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and
there are also several other good observations for other measures.
I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation be
25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural
possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by
some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 are about
180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180
also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years;
from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for
sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there may remain 75
births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some observations we
have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what
is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, according to this
reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then
the annual increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people
may double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200
above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those
vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, and
pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births and 23
burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 births for 9
burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the
above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two-thirds, and the
increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a man, which number,
compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the time of
doubling (including some allowance for wars, plagues, and famines, the
effects thereof), though they be terrible at the times and places where
they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole
nation. For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried away
scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation; and the late
ten years’ civil wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages
before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people.
According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in
England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the
beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 at
the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord
Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.”
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