One class of stocks, however, deserves special mention. Bank and
trust-company stocks possess one characteristic in higher degree than
other classes of stock. Owing to the general practise of self-regulated
banking institutions to distribute only about one-half their earnings in
dividends and to credit the rest to surplus account, a steady rise is
assured in the book value of the stock. No other class of stock
possesses quite the same promise of appreciation in value. Bank and
trust-company stocks are especially sought by wealthy men, who can
forego something in the way of income return for the sake of increasing
the amount of their principal. The general characteristics of bank
stocks are great safety, a low rate of income, limited convertibility,
and practical certainty of appreciation in value.
With the present chapter the discussion of specific forms of investments
has come to an end. The next and concluding chapter will explain the
general principles which control the market movements of all negotiable
securities, and will endeavor to point out the indications which may be
relied upon in determining whether or not given conditions are favorable
for the purchase of securities.
IX
MARKET MOVEMENTS OF SECURITIES
There is no question connected with the investment of money more
important than the ability to judge whether general market conditions
are favorable for the purchase of securities.
After learning how to judge the value of every form of investment, a man
may still be unsuccessful in the investment of money unless he acquires
also a firm grasp upon the general principles which control the price
movements of securities. By this it is not meant that a man needs to
have an intimate knowledge of technical market conditions whereby to
estimate temporary fluctations of minor importance, but rather that he
should have clearly in mind the causes which operate to produce the
larger swings of prices. If an investor acquires such a knowledge, he is
enabled to take advantage of large price movements in such a way as
materially to increase his income, and, at the same time, avoid
carrying upon his books securities which may have cost much more than
their current market quotations. If he can recognize the indications
which point to the beginning of a pronounced upward swing in securities,
and if he can equally recognize the signs which indicate that the
movement has culminated, he can liquidate the securities which he bought
at the inception of the rise or transfer them to some short-term issues
whose near approach to maturity will render them stable in price,
allowing the downward swing to proceed without disturbing him. It is not
expected, of course, that the average business man will be able to
realize completely this ideal of investment, but it is hoped that the
following analysis will give him a clearer conception of the principles
involved.
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