Broadly speaking, the market movements of all negotiable securities are
controlled by two influences, sometimes acting in opposition to each
other and sometimes in concert. One of these influences is the loaning
rate of free capital; the other is the general condition of business. A
low rate of interest or the likelihood of low rates has the effect of
stimulating security prices, because banks and other money-lending
institutions are forced into the investment market when they can not
loan money to advantage. Conversely, a high rate of interest or the
prospect of high rates has the effect of depressing prices, because
banking institutions sell their securities in order to lend the money so
released. The automatic working of this process tends to produce a
constant adjustment between the yields upon free and invested capital.
When money rates are low, securities tend to advance to the point where
the return upon them is no greater than that derived from the loaning of
free capital. When rates are high, securities tend to decline to a point
where the return is as great. This explains the influence of the first
factor.
The other factor is the general condition of business. Good business
conditions, or the promise of good conditions, tend to advance security
prices, because they indicate larger earnings and a stronger financial
condition. Poor business conditions, or an unpromising outlook, have the
reverse effect.
The larger movements of security prices are always the resultant of the
interaction of these two forces. When they work together the effect is
irresistible, as when low interest rates and the prospect of good
business conditions occur together, or when high money rates occur in
the face of an indicated falling off in business activity. At such times
all classes of securities swing together. For the most part, however,
money rates and business conditions are opposed in their influence,
rates being low when business is bad and high when business is good.
Usually the worse business conditions become, the easier money grows;
while the more active business becomes, the higher money rates rise. The
effect of this antagonism between the controlling causes is to produce
movements of different proportions and sometimes in different directions
in different classes of securities. High-grade bonds may be declining,
middle-grade bonds remaining stationary, and poor bonds advancing, all
at the same time. This serves to give a very irregular appearance to the
security markets, and appears to justify the widely held opinion that
security prices are a pure matter of guesswork, and that they are
controlled only by manipulation and special influences. A clear
conception of the nature of the influences which are always silently at
work reconciles these apparent inconsistencies and makes it plain that
general price movements are determined by laws as certain in their
operation as the laws of nature.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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