Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Between the occurrence of the first known case of influenza and the time
of the first very definite increase in influenza incidence in a
community, which interval may be termed the invasion period, there is as
a rule two weeks. During this period, of course, more and more cases are
occurring, but remain usually sufficiently isolated to attract no public
notice. From this point the epidemic develops very rapidly and reaches
its peak, usually within two or at most three weeks. In another two or
three weeks the incidence has fallen away nearly to normal. The epidemic
period comprises from four to six weeks, or, including the invasion
period, an entire duration of six to eight weeks. This is the picture
produced in a community by a primary uncomplicated epidemic of
influenza. Greenwood well describes the salient features of a primary
epidemic as “first a rapid and quasi-symmetrical evolution, and second,
a frequency closely concentrated around the maximum.” In other words the
duration is short, the rise to a peak rapid, and the subsequent fall
equally rapid. He showed that in the July and August, 1918 epidemic in
Great Britain nearly 80 per cent. of the total incidence in the
localities studied was grouped within three weeks time. His curve
corresponds so well with that of the Munich epidemic that he is able to
superimpose them (Chart I). The rapid rise to a peak, almost explosive
in character, more characteristic of this disease than of any other, is
to be explained by the high degree of invasiveness of the organism, by
the short period of incubation, by the fact that many of the sick
continue at their work, thus spreading the disease, and by the
non-immunity of large masses of people, together with the fact that the
transmission of a respiratory infection is accomplished much more easily
than is any other type of infection.
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