Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
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Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
The author holds that the infrequency of immunity is a most important
factor in the production of this type of outbreak. The mode of
transmission of influenza is the same as that of other respiratory
diseases. The infectivity is probably no greater than that of measles,
although that indeed is relatively great. The means of transmission are
presumably the same in each. Were we able to develop an immunity for
influenza of as high degree and permanence as we possess against
measles, pandemics of influenza would disappear. We wish to emphasize
that the primary type of curve is a phenomenon not peculiar to
influenza, but that under certain circumstances it may be found in other
infectious diseases, and that it would be found more frequently in the
other diseases if the immunity developed against them was of as short
duration as it appears to be against influenza. If, for example, measles
were to break out in a large group of individuals, none of whom had had
the disease, the type of curve would be the same. We will produce
evidence supporting our theory under another subject. Of course, other
factors such as short incubation period and unusual opportunities for
spread through mildly ill individuals play a not unimportant role.
CHART I.
[Illustration:
The curves of incidence of influenza in Munich, and of deaths in
London during the 1889 and subsequent epidemics. (_Greenwood._)
]
_Secondary type of epidemic._—There is a decided difference between the
curve of a primary wave as it appears in the onward rush of a new
pandemic and that of a secondary wave occurring at a greater or less
interval following the primary spread. A secondary epidemic affects,
according to Greenwood, a relatively small proportion of the population,
is slower in reaching its maximum, and thereafter declines slowly and
irregularly, more slowly than it increases. The distribution of the
curve is less symmetrical and there is less concentration around the
maximum. A secondary epidemic may be characterized by a much higher
fatality than a primary one.
We believe that the configuration of a secondary type of wave is due
chiefly although not entirely to a certain degree of residual immunity
in a large number of individuals remaining from the first spread. There
is a striking similarity between Chart I and Chart XXVIII, the latter
showing the measles incidence in epidemics among rural or chiefly
non-immune troops in the United States army. Chart XXIX shows a similar
epidemic among urban or chiefly immune individuals. Here the curves
correspond more to those of a secondary type of influenza epidemic. Thus
we see that, in the absence of immunity, other infectious diseases may
produce the primary type of curve, and that this curve is not a feature
of influenza alone.
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