Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
A striking difference between the two types of waves of influenza is the
uniformity and relative constancy of the primary type as contrasted to
the great variation in the secondary type. The story of the first spread
of influenza in one community is usually similar to that of its spread
in any other community. Certain exceptions will be alluded to later. But
in the case of recurrent epidemics we may find them more severe or much
milder; we may find that they attack a large number of individuals or a
very few; we may even find an entire absence of recurrent epidemics in
certain communities. The primary curves are relatively uniform; the
secondary curves are variable.
Between 1889 and 1894 in England there were four epidemics. The first
was primary, symmetrical, and lasted between December and February,
1889–90. The second was asymmetrical and much more fatal in the
localities studied by Greenwood. It occurred in the spring and summer of
1891. There was a third epidemic in the autumn and winter of 1891–92 and
a fourth occurred from November, 1893 to January, 1894. The third
epidemic, according to Greenwood, showed some tendency to revert to the
primary type in respect to symmetry, while the fatality rate partook of
the character of a secondary epidemic.
Creighton writes: “That which chiefly distinguishes the influenza of the
end of the nineteenth century from all other invasions of the disease is
the revival of the epidemic in three successive seasons, the first
recurrence having been more fatal than the original outbreak, and the
second recurrence more fatal (in London at least) than the first. The
closest scrutiny of the old records, including the series of weekly
bills of mortality issued by the parish clerks of London for nearly two
hundred years, discovers no such recurrences of influenza on the great
scale in successive seasons.”
Greenwood, who has studied this subject in great detail in England,
discusses Creighton’s remarks as follows: “He would be a bold man who
challenged the accuracy of Creighton upon a point of historical
scholarship, and I have only to suggest that there are faint indications
of increased mortality in years following primary epidemics of influenza
prior to the nineteenth century. Thus 1675 was a year of primary
epidemic influenza, fully described in Sydenham’s Observationes Medicae.
“The nature of the succeeding constitutions is not clear, but the deaths
‘within the bills’ for 1676 were considerably more numerous than in
1675, although smallpox, fever and ‘griping of the guts’ were noticeably
less fatal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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