Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
“It appears, then, that the origin of the summer epidemic must be
explained upon such epidemiological principles as will account for the
primary wave of 1889–90, that the current outbreak is in pari materia
with that of 1891, its excessive mortality being mainly due to the
accident of season, aided by the special circumstances of overcrowding
and fuel shortage which are due to the war. In a word, this is not
essentially a war epidemic.”
Wutzdorff found that in some towns, particularly in North Germany, the
1891–1892 wave was almost as extensive as that of 1889–90 had been in
other places, but that in general the morbidity in Germany was much
lower. He bases these conclusions on a study of the extent of crowding
in the hospitals in the two years, on statistics of government
physicians, etc.
In Europe the recurrent epidemics of 1891 increased as a rule very
gradually, developed slowly, reached their high point frequently after
many weeks, and as gradually decreased. The epidemic duration in the
winter of 1891–92 lasted four or five months. The morbidity in spite of
the longer duration was decidedly less. This is very different from the
explosive appearance of 1889 when the peak was reached in fourteen days
and the whole epidemic had been completed in six to eight weeks. There
were some exceptions to this rule, as in Yorkshire, England, where the
epidemic broke out suddenly between the 11th and 13th of April, 1891,
had reached its peak after ten days, and for another twenty days
declined. Especially interesting was Sheffield, where the first spread
began gradually and ran a slow course, while the second epidemic of 1891
began explosively, lasted a short time and declined rapidly, but showed
a significantly greater mortality than that of 1889.
The experiences in various communities in the United States have been
not unlike those described for European cities. Abbott in describing the
successive epidemics in Massachusetts remarked that the 1889–90 spread
manifested itself by a sudden rise in the mortality from influenza and
pneumonia, beginning about December 20th and culminating in the middle
week of January, thereafter falling off quite suddenly in February to
about the usual rate for these diseases. The second epidemic two years
later began with a more gradual rise in October and November and then
increased sharply in December, continued for nearly three weeks at its
maximum in January, and declined nearly as sharply as in the previous
epidemic two years before.
Winslow and Rogers who have studied the 1918 epidemic as it affected the
various towns of Connecticut observed that the outbreak in a given
community generally occupied a period of from six to eight weeks, and
was steep and abrupt in communities which were badly hit, flatter and
more gently sloping in those which escaped lightly. Also the outbreak
was more severe in communities receiving the infection early than in
those later affected.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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