Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
_Mortality curves._—Pearl has studied the epidemic constitution of
influenza in forty-two of the large cities of the United States. He has
plotted the annual death rate per 1,000 population from all causes in
each week, from the week ended July 6, 1918, up to January 1, 1919, and
observed a very distinct difference in the type of curve for deaths from
all causes during the epidemic period in the various cities. These
differences have been chiefly in respect to the severity and suddenness
with which they were attacked. Thus Albany, Boston, Baltimore, Dayton
and Philadelphia show an initial explosive outbreak of great force,
while Atlanta, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Milwaukee and Minneapolis
exhibit a much slower and milder increase of the mortality rate. In
Albany and Baltimore the curve of the first epidemic outbreak rises to a
peak and declines at about the same rate. In Cleveland and St. Paul, on
the other hand, the rate of ascent to the peak is very rapid, while the
decline is slow and long drawn out.
Some of the cities, such as Albany, show but a single well defined peak
in the mortality curve. Others, such as Boston, New Orleans and San
Francisco show two peaks; while still others, like Louisville, show
three well marked peaks.
Usually the first was the highest and the second and third were
progressively lower. Milwaukee and St. Louis, on the other hand, showed
second peaks higher than the first. The usual phenomenon, however, was a
large first wave followed by smaller ones.
The highest, or maximum peak rate of mortality during the epidemic
varied greatly, from 31.6 per 1,000 in the case of Grand Rapids, to
158.3 per 1,000 in the case of Philadelphia.
The death rates which were of the most frequent occurrence were,
generally speaking, rates below 70 per 1,000 per week.
The date of the week in which the maximum peak rate occurred was
earliest in Boston and Cambridge, where it occurred October 5th, and
latest in Grand Rapids, Milwaukee and St. Louis (December 14th).
Thirty-one of the 40 cities studied had attained the peak rate of
mortality prior to November 2d. In the case of Milwaukee and St. Louis
the maximum peak was the second peak, whereas in Grand Rapids it was the
first peak that was so late. Sixty-five per cent. of the 40 cities
showed two distinct peaks in the mortality curve, while 15 per cent. had
one peak, and 8 or 20 per cent. had three peaks.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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