Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
From a detailed mathematical study of influenza in 39 of our largest
cities, done chiefly by the means of multiple correlation, with the hope
of being able to explain the differences in the epidemic curves of
weekly mortality in the various cities, Pearl concludes as follows:
“The general conclusion to which we come from an examination of the
correlation data assembled to this point is that these four general
demographic factors, density of population, geographical position, age
distribution of population, and rate of recent growth in population,
have practically nothing to do, either severally or collectively, with
bringing about those differences between the several cities in respect
to explosiveness of the outbreak of epidemic mortality in which we are
interested. Significantly causal or differentiating factors must be
sought elsewhere.”
CHART II.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
CHART III.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
CHART IV.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
CHART V.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
CHART VI.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
CHART VII.
[Illustration:
Death rates from all causes by weeks in certain large cities of the
United States during the winter of 1918–19. (_Pearl._)
]
Concerning geographical position, he did find some slight relationship
with linear distance from the city of Boston, where the epidemic was
supposed first to have begun in this country:
“This result means that the greater the linear distance of a city from
Boston the less explosive did the outbreak of epidemic mortality in that
city tend to be. This is in accord with the general epidemiological rule
that the force of an epidemic tends to diminish as it spreads from its
primary or initial focus. It must be noted, however, that the
correlation coefficient in this case is not large. It is barely past the
value where it may safely be regarded as statistically significant. This
fact may probably be taken to mean that influenza does not follow the
epidemiological law referred to with anything like such precision as do
some other epidemic diseases, notably poliomyelitis.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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