Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
“It appears clearly that there was a definite tendency for the two-peak
cities to fall into two groups in respect of the time elapsing between
first and second peaks. About a third of them had the second mortality
peak around eight weeks after the first peak. The remaining two-thirds
had the second peak, on the average, about thirteen weeks after the
first. The three-peak curves had the second peak on an average 7.1 ± 0.3
weeks after the first, and the third peak on an average 13.1 ± 0.3 weeks
after the second. The cycle in the epidemic waves would therefore appear
to be nearly a multiple of seven weeks rather than the ten weeks
tentatively deduced from the dates of peaks. There the process of
averaging obscured the true relations.”
_Duration of explosive outbreak._—The range of the duration of the first
outbreak of epidemic mortality is great, varying from five weeks in
Richmond, Virginia, to twenty-three weeks in Atlanta, Georgia. Twenty of
the cities, one-half the total number, showed a duration of ten weeks or
less, while in the other half the duration was eleven weeks or more. The
mean duration of epidemic mortality in the first outbreak was 11.90 ±
0.55 weeks. The ascending limb of mortality rate was rapid in nearly all
cities. The descending limb was usually slower. In 34 of the 40 cities
it required four weeks or less time for the mortality rate to pass from
normal to its epidemic peak. But in only half as many (17) of the cities
did the rate come down from its peak to normal again in a period of four
weeks or less. The mean time from normal mortality rate to peak was 3.90
± 0.21 weeks. The mean time from peak mortality rate to normal was 8.00
± 0.50 weeks. Thus it took about twice as many weeks for the mortality
curve to come back from its peak to normal, as were required for the
increase from normal to peak at the beginning of the explosion. This is
on the average. The ascending limb occupied about a month and the
descending limb two months.
Pearl’s curves which have been copied in this report (Charts II to VII)
enable us to follow his conclusions. Pearl offers a partial explanation
for the variations in the different cities. There can be no doubt but
what many factors play a role in the causation of these variations, and
it is to be regretted that up to the present no statistics for smaller,
more homogeneous communities have as yet been reported which could be
compared with Pearl’s excellent work on the large cities of the country.
Were his work supplemented by records from smaller towns in which the
varying factors are less numerous, in which there is less occupational
variation, additional conclusions could probably be reached. The
unfortunate feature is that as a rule statistics from the smaller cities
and towns are less reliable.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account