Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Sydenstricker in a preliminary report remarks on the fact that the
disease reached an epidemic stage in a number of localities in the
central, northern, southern and western sections at about the same time
as it did in the area along the northeastern coast. “The possibility is
suggested, therefore, that sources of infection existed in at least some
of the larger population centers, well distributed through the country,
some time before the disease appeared as a nation-wide epidemic. The
apparent radial spread of the epidemic from certain centers would seem
to strengthen this hypothesis. It may also be noted that there is
evidence, the collection of which has not yet been completed, pointing
to the existence of cases of the disease in various centers, probably
widely distributed, weeks before they were definitely recognized as
influenza. The possibility that these foci themselves had a common focus
is by no means excluded, of course, but there is as yet no conclusive
evidence that would warrant the statement that the starting point of the
epidemic was Boston or any specific locality.”
Dublin, from a study of the statistics of the Metropolitan Life
Insurance Company, finds that the virulence of the influenza, as
indicated by the mortality rate, was greatest along the Atlantic Coast
and became progressively less as it progressed westward. There was one
exception. The mortality was high in San Francisco, higher than in other
western communities. Dublin believes that quite possibly there was a
double infection in San Francisco in the fall of 1918, one coming from
the East and of small caliber, while the other came either by way of the
Panama Canal or perhaps from Asia. The evidence in favor of two ways is
that Dublin finds that the peak of incidence in San Francisco and in
some other places on the Pacific Coast occurred sometime in advance of
the similar peak at points inland from the coast. This is not brought
out in Pearl’s chart, and the latter finds when considering the peak of
deaths that the peak for San Francisco was late. The peak in that city,
in Oakland, California, and in Los Angeles, was reached on the week
ending November 2d. Few cities had as late death peaks. Cleveland and
Pittsburgh reached their peak in the same week, St. Paul, Minnesota in
the week ending November 16th, and St. Louis, Milwaukee and Grand Rapids
not until the week ending December 14th. In the case of Milwaukee and
St. Louis these were the high peak dates but they were second peaks. In
the former the first peak occurred October 26th and in the latter
November 2d. In Grand Rapids the increase in mortality was clearcut by
the middle of October, although the peak was not reached until the week
ending December 14th. These statistics would indicate that San Francisco
was attacked, as evidenced by increase in death reports, relatively
late, and at about the time that would be necessary for the disease to
be carried across the continent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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