The more recent action of the Russians in Manchuria tends, of course,
to support the view that war may be imminent. Nevertheless, bluff is a
component part of Russian diplomacy, and there is ground for believing
that the intentions of Russia in the Far East are by no means so
warlike as the preparations now proceeding and the acts of the Russian
administrative officials in Manchuria itself would imply. Russian
diplomacy always covers the development of its plans by preparing
to demonstrate in a contrary direction; and at the present time her
occupation of Korean territory is little else than the screen, behind
which she proposes to secure her hold upon Manchuria. Nothing short of
war will cause her to retire from her position in Manchuria; but while
Korean territory is of little value to the Russian protectorate, whatever
the compromise which may be effected between Japan and Russia, she may
be expected to make a determined effort to dominate the lower waters
of the Yalu River. In fact, curious as it may seem, the estuary of the
Yalu River is the very locale of the dispute between the two Powers,
since, if Russia were ever permitted to dominate the Yalu River, she
would gain at once that special position upon the frontiers of Korea
which it is the desire of Japan to frustrate. In this Japan can rely only
upon the shortshifts of diplomacy; and although the Russian occupation
of Yong-an-po may be circumvented, the development of An-tung upon the
opposite shore of the river cannot be prevented. It seems, therefore,
as inevitable that some commanding position upon the Yalu River must
ultimately fall to her lot. An-tung lies within Manchurian territory;
the Yalu River is the border stream between Manchuria and Korea, and
at Yong-an-po the nucleus of an important Russian settlement has been
established. The future contains no promise of the immediate settlement
of the present difficulty. At best the outlook is confused; while at
the same time there is presented in a manner singularly clear and
comprehensible the fact that Russia neither will evacuate New-chang, be
driven out of Manchuria, nor abandon her position on the Yalu River. The
position of Russia at New-chang has been indicated by past events, her
occupation of Manchuria is an old story, and she is now engaged in the
rapid development of her interests at An-tung. The position of this port
endows it with unusual advantages, and the commercial potentialities of
the place are very great. It lies about fifteen miles above Yong-an-po,
on the opposite bank. At present the export trade is confined to millet
and silk cocoons, the over-production of the latter commodity requiring
close technical supervision. Eight miles below An-tung, situated on the
right bank of the river, is the likin station San-tao-lan-tao, where
junks and rafts must report and pay the stipulated excise before they
proceed onward. The river then bears away to the north-east, and after
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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