Yet such laws seem to exist; and thousands of players have ruined
themselves in following their forms or their elusive and deceptive
traces. Let us take a bundle of those records or _permanences_,
published at Monte Carlo, which give day by day the list of
all the numbers that have come up at one of the roulette or
_trente-et-quarante_ tables. As everybody knows, these numbers are
arranged in long parallel columns, the black on the left and the red
on the right. When we look at one of these sheets, containing as a
rule ten columns of sixty-five numbers each--dead and harmless cyphers
now, though once so dangerous, once destructive of so many hopes and
perhaps inspiring more than one disaster--we observe a tendency towards
a fairly perceptible equilibrium between the red and the black. Most
often the two chances balance each other, singly or in little groups,
a black, a red, two blacks, three reds, three blacks, two reds and so
on. When we come upon a series of five, six, seven, eight, sometimes
eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve consecutive blacks, we are almost
certain of finding not far away a compensating series of five, six,
seven, eight or ten reds. There is a very real rhythm, a sort of
breathing or a cadenced movement to and fro of the mysterious creature
which we call Chance. This rhythm or balance is moreover confirmed by
the final statistics of the day, from which we learn that, in a total
of six hundred and so many spins of the ball, the difference between
the black and the red very seldom exceeds twenty or thirty; and this
difference is even smaller in the total for the week, that is to say,
in a total of nearly five thousand spins, when it is usually reduced to
a few units.
4
The monster has other strange habits. We see, for instance, that it is
not uncommon for a number to come up twice in succession; and it is
undeniable that, in each day’s play, two or three numbers are obviously
favoured, so much so that we may hurl out a challenge to logic and
declare that the more frequently a number occurs the more chances it
has of reappearing. This seems to conflict with the law of equilibrium
which we have remarked; but it must be observed that this equilibrium
will be recovered later, that by the end of the week the difference
will no longer be very great and that they will almost disappear when
the month is over. The equilibrium is more slowly restored because we
must multiply the number of series by eighteen and a half to reach the
proportions of the even chances.
Players note yet another law which, for that matter, is but a corollary
of the former habit, but which has something curiously human about it:
the chances which lag behind show a greater eagerness to regain their
lost ground at the moment that follows more or less closely upon a
halt, as though they had recovered their breath after a brief rest on
the landing of a staircase.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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