Let us add at once that it is wise to distrust these fluctuating habits
and these gropings after laws. For instance, red has been known to beat
black by seventy per cent. in the course of a day’s play. Black, on
the other hand, as people still remember at Monte Carlo, one day came
up twenty-nine times in succession and the second dozen twenty-eight
times without a break. Chance has not our nerves; it is not, like us,
impatient to make good its losses or to carry off its gains. It takes
its time, awaits its hour and does not trouble to keep step with our
ways of life.
5
Players as a rule attribute these habits or caprices to a trick of the
croupier’s hand. This is hardly tenable. After all, we know how the
thing is done. The ball drops into its compartment and the croupier
announces, for instance:
“13, black, _impair_ and manque.”
The losses are raked in, the winnings are paid out, the players renew
their stakes, there is sometimes a brief dispute, somebody asks for
change and so on. These operations vary a good deal in length; and
all this time the wheel carrying the ball is making hundreds of
revolutions. The croupier stops it at last, takes the ball, reverses
the wheel and sends the ball spinning in the opposite direction. It is
impossible under these conditions for his particular trick of the hand
to exercise any influence whatever. Besides, we can easily see from
the chart of the _permanences_ that the change of croupier does not
perceptibly affect the rhythm of the even chances. It is not the man
who controls the rhythm but the rhythm that controls the man.
6
These gropings after laws in what would seem a negation of all or any
law; these strivings on the part of Chance to quit its own domain
and to organize its chaos; this god who denies himself and seeks to
destroy himself by his own hand; these incomprehensible stammerings,
these awkward efforts to achieve utterance and assume consciousness are
rather curious, we must admit. For the rest, it is these efforts, these
hankerings after equilibrium, this embryonic rhythm that constitute
the gamblers’ good and bad luck. If Chance were simply Chance as we
conceive it on first principles, one would stake any sum anyhow and
at any moment. I am well aware that, according to the most learned
theorists on roulette, each _coup_ is independent of all the others
and begins as if nothing had happened before, as if nothing were to
happen afterwards, as if the table were fresh from the shop, the wheel
from the factory and the croupier from the hands of God. In theory
this is quite accurate; but we have just seen that in practice it does
not seem to be so. For that matter, it seems impossible to explain the
reason. Players are satisfied to observe the fact, while yielding to
a dangerous but very human tendency to exaggerate the scope and the
certainty of their observations.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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