Pleasant Ways in ScienceProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Pleasant Ways in Science
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
The evidence thus afforded is by no means promising, then, so far as
the prediction of special storms, or floods, or droughts is concerned.
It would seem that if past experience can afford any evidence in such
matters, men may expect to recognize cycles of weather change long
before they recognize corresponding solar cycles (presuming always that
such cycles exist), and that they may expect to find the recognition
of such association utterly barren, so far as the possibility of
predicting definite weather changes is concerned. It would seem that
there is no likelihood of anything better than what Sir J. Herschel
said _might_ be hoped for hereafter. “A lucky hit may be made; nay,
some rude approach to the perception of a ‘cycle of seasons’ may
_possibly_ be obtainable. But no person in his senses would alter
his plans of conduct for six months in advance in the most trifling
particular on the faith of any special prediction of a warm or a cold,
a wet or a dry, a calm or a stormy, summer or winter”—far less of a
great storm or flood announced for any special day.
But let us see what the cycle association between solar spots and
terrestrial weather actually is, or rather of what nature it promises
to be, for as yet the true nature of the association has not been made
out.
It has been found that in a period of about eleven years the sun’s
surface is affected by what may be described as a wave of sun-spots.
There is a short time—a year or so—during which scarce any spots are
seen; they become more and more numerous during the next four or five
years, until they attain a maximum of frequency and size; after this
they wane in number and dimensions, until at length, about eleven years
from the time when he had before been freest from spots, he attains
again a similar condition. After this the spots begin to return,
gradually attain to a maximum, then gradually diminish, until after
eleven more years have elapsed few or none are seen. It must not be
supposed that the sun is always free from spots at the time of minimum
spot frequency, or that he always shows many and large spots at the
time of maximum spot frequency. Occasionally several very large spots,
and sometimes singularly large spots, have been seen in the very heart
of the minimum spot season, and again there have been occasions when
scarcely any spots have been seen for several days in the very heart
of the maximum spot season. But, taking the average of each year,
the progression of the spots in number and frequency from minimum
to maximum, and their decline from maximum to minimum, are quite
unmistakeable.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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