Pleasant Ways in ScienceProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Pleasant Ways in Science
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Mr. Jeula was “only able to obtain data for two complete cycles of
eleven years, namely, from 1855 to 1876 inclusive, while the period
investigated by Dr. Hunter extended from 1813 to 1876, and his
observations related to Madras and its neighbourhood only, while the
losses posted at Lloyd’s occurred to vessels of various countries, and
happened in different parts of the world. It was necessary to bring
these losses to some common basis of comparison, and the only available
one was the number of ‘British registered vessels of the United Kingdom
and Channel Islands’—manifestly an arbitrary one. I consequently
cast out the percentage of losses posted each year upon the number of
registered vessels for the same year, and also the percentage of losses
posted in each of the eleven years of the two cycles upon the total
posted in each complete cycle, thus obtaining two bases of comparison
independent of each other.”
The results may be thus presented:—
Taking the four years of each cycle when sun-spots were least in
number, Mr. Jeula found the mean percentage of losses in registered
vessels of the United Kingdom and Channel Islands to be 11·13, and the
mean percentage of losses in the total posted in the entire cycle of
eleven years to be 8·64.
In the four years when sun-spots were intermediate in number, that
is in two years following the minimum and in two years preceding the
minimum, the respective percentages were 11·91 and 9·21.
Lastly, in the three years when sun-spots were most numerous, these
percentages were, respectively, 12·49 and 9·53.
That the reader may more clearly understand what is meant here by
percentages, I explain that while the numbers 11·13, 11·91 and 12·49
simply indicate the average number of wrecks (per hundred of all
the ships registered) which occurred in the several years of the
eleven-years cycle, the other numbers, 8·64, 19·21, and 9·53, indicate
the average number of wrecks (per hundred of wrecks recorded) during
eleven successive years, which occurred in the several years of the
cycle. The latter numbers seem more directly to the purpose; and as the
two sets agree pretty closely, we may limit our attention to them.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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