Pleasant Ways in ScienceProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Pleasant Ways in Science
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
The first definite enunciation, however, of a relation between
sun-spots and shipwrecks appeared in September, 1876. Mr. Henry
Jeula, in the _Times_ for September 19, stated that Dr. Hunter’s
researches into the Madras rainfall had led him to throw together the
scanty materials available relating to losses posted on Lloyd’s loss
book, to ascertain if any coincidences existed between the varying
number of such losses and Dr. Hunter’s results. “For,” he proceeds,
“since the cycle of rainfall at Madras coincides, I am informed, with
the periodicity of the cyclones in the adjoining Bay of Bengal” (a
relation which is more than doubtful) “as worked out by the Government
Astronomer at Mauritius” (whose researches, however, as we have seen,
related to a region remote from the Bay of Bengal), “some coincidence
between maritime casualties, rainfalls, and sun-spots appeared at
least possible.” In passing, I may note that if any such relation were
established, it would be only an extension of the significance of
the cycle of cyclones, and could have no independent value. It would
certainly follow, if the cycle of cyclones is made out, that shipwrecks
being more numerous, merchants would suffer, and we should have the
influence of the solar spots asserting itself in the _Gazette_. From
the cyclic derangement of monetary and mercantile matters, again,
other relations also cyclic in character would arise. But as all these
may be inferred from the cycle of cyclones once this is established,
we could scarcely find in their occurrence fresh evidence of the
necessity of that much begged-for solar observatory. The last great
monetary panic in this country, by the way, occurred in 1866, at a
time of minimum solar maculation. Have we here a decisive proof that
the sun rules the money market, the bank rate of discount rising to a
maximum as the sun-spots sink to a minimum, and _vice versâ_? The idea
is strengthened by the fact that the American panic in 1873 occurred
when spots were very numerous, and its effects have steadily subsided
as the spots have diminished in number; for this shows that the sun
rules the money market in America on a principle diametrically opposed
to that on which he (manifestly) rules the money market in England,
precisely as the spots cause drought in Calcutta and plenteous rainfall
at Madras, wet south-westers and dry south-westers at Oxford, and wet
south-easters and dry south-easters at St. Petersburg. Surely it would
be unreasonable to refuse to recognize the weight of evidence which
thus tells on both sides at once.
To return, however, to the sun’s influence upon shipwrecks.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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