Pleasant Ways in ScienceProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Pleasant Ways in Science
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Three minimum years—total rainfall 133·340
Three maximum years—total rainfall 170·774
Three minimum years—total rainfall 120·721
Nothing could be more satisfactory, but nothing, I venture to assert,
more thoroughly inconsistent with the true method of statistical
research.
May it not be that, underlying the broad results presented by Mr.
Jeula, there are similar irregularities?
When we consider that the loss of ships depends, not only on a cause so
irregularly variable (to all seeming) as wind-storms, but also on other
matters liable to constant change, as the variations in the state of
trade, the occurrence of wars and rumours of wars, special events, such
as international exhibitions, and so forth, we perceive that an even
wider range of survey is required to remove the effects of accidental
peculiarities in their case, than in the case of rainfall, cyclones,
or the like. I cannot but think, for instance, that the total number
of ships lost in divers ways during the American war, and especially
in its earlier years (corresponding with two of the three maximum
years of sun-spots) may have been greater, not merely absolutely but
relatively, than in other years. I think it conceivable, again, that
during the depression following the great commercial panic of 1866
(occurring at a time of minimum solar maculation, as already noticed)
the loss of ships may have been to some degree reduced, relatively as
well as absolutely. We know that when trade is unusually active many
ships have sailed, and perhaps may still be allowed to sail (despite
Mr. Plimsoll’s endeavours), which should have been broken up; whereas
in times of trade depression the ships actually afloat are likely
to be, _on the average_, of a better class. So also, when, for some
special reason, passenger traffic at sea is abnormally increased. I
merely mention these as illustrative cases of causes not (probably)
dependent on sun-spots, which may (not improbably) have affected the
results examined by Mr. Jeula. I think it possible that those results,
if presented for each year, would have indicated the operation of such
causes, naturally masked when sets of four years, four years, and three
years are taken instead of single years.
I imagine that considerations such as these will have to be taken into
account and disposed of before it will be unhesitatingly admitted that
sun-spots have any great effect in increasing the number of shipwrecks.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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