Projections for years after 2001 indicate the percent ever incarcerated will rise at an accelerated pace. If rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, 5.4% of persons born in 1965 are expected to have gone to prison by age 75, more than three times the 1.7% of persons born in 1930. The projected rise in the percent ever incarcerated slows among persons in later cohorts. Of those born in 1970, 6.0% are expected to have been in prison by age 75, compared to 6.5% of those born in 1975, and 6.6% of those born in 1980. +3.4% of adults projected to have served time in prison by 2010+ The prevalence of having been to prison will rise among the U.S. adult population as more birth cohorts experience the full impact of current levels of first incarceration. Assuming that current age-specific rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, the number of adults having ever served time in prison is projected to rise to 7.7 million by 2010. A total of 3.4% of the adult population (1 in 29 persons age 18 or older) is expected to have served time in prison. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected prevalence of having gone to State or Federal prison* Year Number Percent 2001 5,618,000 2.7% 2002 5,856,000 2.8 2003 6,095,000 2.8 2004 6,332,000 2.9 2005 6,568,000 3.0 2006 6,804,000 3.1 2007 7,040,000 3.1 2008 7,275,000 3.2 2009 7,511,000 3.3 2010 7,745,000 3.4 *Based on prevalence estimates for exact ages through 2001 and projections for exact ages from 2002 through 2010. See _Methodology_ for estimation procedures. Projected adult Year resident population 2001 210,207,901 2002 212,427,944 2003 214,688,268 2004 216,918,713 2005 219,144,044 2006 221,409,946 2007 223,754,193 2008 226,155,771 2009 228,520,785 2010 230,792,746 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- +Lifetime likelihood estimates of going to prison differ from current prevalence estimates+ The lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the percentage of all persons in a birth cohort expected to go to prison over the course of a lifetime. In contrast, the prevalence of ever having gone to prison is an estimate of the percentage who have ever gone to prison among just the surviving members of all birth cohorts over a specific period.