Estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison project the percentage of persons at birth expected to go to prison, if the entire cohort were subject to a fixed set of rates of first admission to prison and mortality over an entire lifetime. In calculating these estimates, incarceration and mortality rates are fixed at the time of "birth" of the cohort. Standard life table techniques were used to prepare estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison based on rates of first incarceration during a 12-month period derived from inmate surveys conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997, for a description of previous estimates.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- +6.6% of persons born in 2001 will go to prison, if current rates of first incarceration remain unchanged+ If rates of first incarceration and mortality in 2001 remain unchanged, nearly 1 in 15 persons born in 2001 (6.6%) will go to State or Federal prison during their lifetime (figure 3). [Illustration: Figure 3: Lifetime chances of going to prison] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 3 +The lifetime chances of going to prison reached 6.6% in 2001, up from 1.9% in 1974+ Cumulative percent of U.S. residents going to prison Age 1974 1986 1991 2001 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 18 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 19 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 20 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 21 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 22 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8 23 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.1 24 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.4 25 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.6 26 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.9 27 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.1 28 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.4 29 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.6 30 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.9 31 1.5 2.2 3.5 4.1 32 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.3 33 1.5 2.4 3.7 4.5 34 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.7 35 1.6 2.5 4.0 4.9 36 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1 37 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.2 38 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.4 39 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.5 40 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.6 41 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.7 42 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.8 43 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.9 44 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.0 45 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1 46 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1 47 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2 48 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2 49 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.2