In 2001, the chances of going to prison were highest among black males (32.2%)and Hispanic males (17.2%) and lowest among white males (5.9%). The lifetime chances of going to prison among black females (5.6%) were nearly as high as for white males. Hispanic females (2.2%) and white females (0.9%) had much lower chances of going to prison. As a result of changes in first incarceration and mortality rates between 1974 and 2001, black males experienced a greater increase in the chances of going to prison over the course of a lifetime than any other group (from 13.4% in 1974 to 32.2% in 2001). Hispanic males experienced the second largest increase (from 4.0% in 1974 to 17.2% in 2001). White males experienced a smaller increase (from 2.2% in 1974 to 5.9% in 2001). The lifetime chances of going to prison increased more rapidly for black females (from 1.1% in 1974 to 5.6% in 2001) than for white males. Hispanic females (from 0.4% in 1974 to 2.2% in 2001) and white females (from 0.2% in 1974 to 0.9% in 2001) had smaller increases in their lifetime chances of going to prison. At every age men have higher chances of going to prison than women, and blacks and Hispanics have higher chances than whites. Based on current rates of first incarceration, an estimated 6.7% of black males will enter State or Federal prison by the time they are age 20, compared to 3.0% of Hispanic males and 0.8% of white males. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- +Methodology+ _Life table techniques_ Life table techniques previously used to illustrate the implications of prevailing incarceration rates in 1991 have been extended to model the incarceration experience of actual generations of U.S. residents. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997.) These generation life tables provide the data needed to estimate the number of living persons who have ever been incarcerated. A generation life table traces a birth cohort of 100,000 persons through their entire lives, subjecting them to the observed age-specific mortality and incarceration rates which they encountered in each subsequent calendar year of life. The procedure is known as a double-decrement life table because there are two forms of exit from the initial 100,000 birth cohort. The procedure yields estimates of the number of persons in the birth cohort who are incarcerated for the first time each year or who die.