Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
There are three senses in which this idea of “Them” has some foundation
in fact. First, “They” may be and often are roughly conceived of as
the floor traders on the Stock Exchange who are directly concerned
in making quotations, pools formed to control certain stocks, or
individual manipulators.
Floor traders exercise an important influence on the immediate movement
of prices. Suppose, for example, they observe that offerings of Reading
are very light. Declines do not induce liquidation and only small
offerings of stock are met on advances. They begin to feel that, in
the absence of unexpected cataclysms, Reading will not decline much.
The natural thing for them to do is to begin buying Reading on all soft
spots. Whenever a few hundred shares are offered at a bargain, floor
traders snap up the stock.
As a result of this “bailing out” of the market, Reading becomes
scarcer still, and traders, being now long, become more bullish. They
begin to “mark up prices.” This is not difficult, since they are, for
the time being, practically unanimous in a desire for higher prices.
Suppose the market is 161⅛ bid, offered at 161¼. They find that only
100 shares are for sale at ¼, and 200 are offered at ⅜. As to how
much stock may be awaiting bids at ½ or higher, they cannot be sure,
but can generally make a shrewd guess. One or more traders take these
offerings, of perhaps 500 shares, and make the market ½ bid. The other
floor traders are not willing to sell at this trifling profit, and a
wait ensues to see whether any outside orders are attracted by the
movement of the price, and if so, whether they are buying or selling
orders. If a few buying orders come in, they are filled, perhaps at ⅝
and ¾. If selling appears, the floor traders retire in good order, take
the offerings at lower prices, and try it again the next day or perhaps
the next hour. Eventually, by seizing every favorable opportunity, they
engineer an upward move of perhaps two or three points without taking
any more stock than they want.
If such a movement attracts a following, it may easily run ten points
without any real change in the prospects of the Reading road—though
the prospects of the road may have had something to do with making the
stock scarce before the movement started. On the other hand, if large
offerings of stock are encountered at the advance, the boomlet is
ignominiously squelched and the floor traders make trifling profits or
losses.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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